The casual baseball fan has to be let down by the lack of movement during Major League Baseball’s offseason. The hot stove, as it is commonly referred to, was expected to be scorching in 2018-2019. Two of the best players of this generation are free agents entering their prime years. The offseason represented a time to steal the spotlight and generate excitement for fans without ever taking the field. Changes are happening in the market right before our eyes and the story starts to become centered on what players aren’t receiving rather than the contracts they are receiving. It is part of the reason MLB is behind in regard to viewership and attendance, most notably with millennials. More than ever before, the young fan craves year around stories and drama surrounding whatever sport they are following. In comparison to the NBA/NFL, the buzz is dead in MLB. Owners are collectively driving the market down to ensure it does not become inflated as seen in the NBA and MLB previously.
Prior to 2016, MLB seemed destined to maintain its grip as the most attractive league as far as player payout is concerned. The trend is obviously noticeable to owners throughout the league. As a result, the hot stove has been frigid and players are experiencing a drastic shift in the market. This is no fault of their own. The league is still generating strong revenues yet are holding out on those who drive the numbers on the field. Many solid big-league players are signing less than month prior to when pitchers and catchers report. Most organizations have a good idea of how their roster will look just month before the report date so the timeline for free agents the past two off-seasons has raised eyebrows. In a league of strong competitive balance, the market should always be solid for impactful role players who can make a difference when it matters most. Owners did not budge for the games most marketable stars either. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned into January as Spring Training is right around the corner. The holdout has to be to maintain the market to manageable levels.
The baseball community is starting to take notice of the market shifting away from the players. Numbers don’t lie and the truth cannot be hidden. Although not yet considerable, average free agent salary in Major League Baseball is down for the first time since 2004. The numbers are not drastic. In 2018, the players union announced its final average was $4,095,686, down $1,436 from $4,097,122 last year.This small change may just be an aberration representing no trend whatsoever but I would argue that with revenues still bullish for the league overall. Free agent salary should not be going nowhere but up as seen the previous 15 years. A second consecutive slow off-season is showing the baseball world that this may be more significant than originally perceived. It is especially alarming when you consider that three years ago, the 2015 free agent class enjoyed one of the most prosperous off-season’s in league history. Jason Heyward was offered the same type of contract as Manny Machado’s current best offer (7 years, $175 million). This has to shed light on the owners around the league. They do not want to get caught in a player’s market again like 2015.
A case toward collusion is starting to take shape and could rear its ugly head during the leagues next collective bargaining agreement. The league’s CBA is set to expire in 2021 and the lead up so far has been nothing short of tense. The league is widely known for its aggressive, powerful players union who will be charged with making changes to ensure free agents have the upper-hand for 2022 and beyond. Revenues are up for the 18thconsecutive season, leaving the owners with many questions to answer. The two sides are set for a stand-off that could spill over into a potential 2022 strike. Kris Bryant recently preached player sentiment in an interview at the annual Cubs winter fan convention where he stated “[Machado and Harper] Two of the best players in the game, and they have very little interest in them, from just what I hear. It’s not good. It’s something that will have to change. I know a lot of the other players are pretty upset about it.” The most troubling part is the lack of interest in players under the age of 30. It blatantly shows that deeper issues lie ahead.
A case for collusion is highly unlikely. The evidence needed to prove this case to the United States justice system has to be substantial due to the gravity of the situation. The amount of money at stake would make for an ugly scene headlined by the best lawyers in the business. Collusion will not be proven in an official capacity but this does not mean it is not happening right before our eyes. An obvious case to hinder free agency growth was difficult to prove in the 1980s. The only previous Collusion case was in the 1985 and 1986 offseason with payout made in 1990. During these two years only eight free agents switched teams out of the 70+ available while average free agent salary dropped 16 percent. The climate has changed since and now more money is on the line making the situation even murkier than in the 1980s. Generational and marketable stars such as Altuve, Betts, Trout, Harper, Bryant and Lindor are littered throughout the league, yet two of these players are experiencing an unexpected cold market. Both players were set to receive record-breaking deals. But, when you consider what previous stars in this game have demanded they will come up short. Collusion will be extremely difficult to prove. A bigger take away is the potential work stoppage that will result from the animosity developing between owners and players.