Article is focused on gambling in football. Please contact 1-800-GAMBLER for help related to addiction
Recently Barstool Sports posted a story on a fellow who parlayed a mere 89 cents on 20 different football matchups. The first 19 were successful and all that was needed was a Washington Redskins win on Monday Night football. The payout: $500,000. The Redskins went on to lose the game (who bets on the Redskins?). The moral of the story is that you can win money betting against Vegas, even if you do not have a lot to spend. The coalition of official sportsbooks is efficient and profitable at “evening the playing field” to predict how games will play out. How does the common man strike gold? The primary focus should be on rule changes over the years that have substantially benefited the offensive player. As a result, offense has become the focal point of winning football games and making favorable bets against the almighty bookies. Football has taken into account player safety above of all else. In this initiative, you will find consistent rule changes that control or hinder the defender in his attempt to potentially violently stop the offender. Football is geared towards offense and this should be central to your football betting habits.
You do not win if you do not score. It is an age-old saying in sports that should be primary to your strategy when examining which games and teams you are going to bet on. The first metric of importance is Offensive 1st down success rate. The ability to move the ball on first down and set yourself up for success on later downs is paramount to scoring the valuable 7 points. When playing the numbers game, 7 is greater than 3 every single time and the most disruptive force to a betting line in football is the touchdown. These metrics will hone in on an offense’s ability to do just this. The number of third down opportunities a team faces on average is telling. The number is significant because the less a team is faced with these situations the more explosive and effective they are. To complement this, 3rd down efficiency is also important. 3rd down offense and defense often win or lose football games. It is the do or die down for both teams on that specific drive. Another simplistic statistic that should be considered is yards per completion. This shows you evidence on whether the team is performing well in producing effective scoring drives. The higher yards per completion means the quarterback stays out of unfavorable downs and distances. Yet, excels when thrown into the same mentioned situations. There are other metrics that are of critical importance when achieving a touchdown on offense. Yards per play, completion percentage, and sacks allowed are all telling signs when finalizing a bet. Signs are not always so telling. Throw the numbers out, and a team must be able to win the line of scrimmage, execute a game plan and play penalty-free football
Under-looked trends are penalties and coaching. Coaching and game planning can position players to make big plays and swing points especially when there is similar talent on the field. A prime example of this is the 2019 Dallas Cowboys led by Jason Garrett. I should not need to expand further on the difference coaching can make. Penalties are usually associated with an undisciplined team. A lack of discipline means bad practicing habits. Practice habits are where a coach can do to make the most impact on a player. Along with offense, coaching should be central in your idea of how a team will play and matchup on a given day. The ultimate bet is on a strong offense-minded coach riding a hot streak. This should also mean that the player with the ball in his hands every single play is well in sync with the person on the sideline in control.
At the end of the day, the old-fashioned eye-test and gut will always sway your betting strategy. It is important to watch and be up to date on what you are betting on. Your eye-test should be focused on offense, and these advanced metrics of evaluating a team. Defense should rule supreme if you believe that side of the ball is so talented that it will be able to effectively take away what the offense will be trying to dictate. Stay away from these muddy waters. Use the focus of football to start to focus on your pocket and win. The offensive revolution is upon us and it will only become more advantageous as time goes on. Offense rules and the game needs to be made safer. This is a perfect mix to swing the odds in your favor. Focus on 1st down success rate, third-down offense, yards per play, sacks and coaching. This is no secret formula exactly but instead a shift of the mind to create an advantage where you can. Did someone say money?