The National Football League is clearly behind in the realm of advanced statistics and the teams that put an emphasis on these types of stats will reap the benefits down the road. The advanced stat, Coverage Efficiency Rating(CER), will bring light to a player’s true ability to be in a favorable cover position when the ball is thrown. It is tied to the yard radius the player is with respect to the wide receiver when the ball is thrown. Player positioning is represented on a color spectrum of Red, Yellow, and Green. Each color represents a player being out of position, favorable position, or playmaking position respectively. A players rating is determined by the number of points accrued divided by total plays graded. the scale looks something like this: greater than 1.3 is elite, average = 1.05, and a low rating is represented by any number below 1.05. Through film study and complex breakdowns, I was able to evaluate the top 5 cornerback prospects using my advanced stat to see where each player should truly be rated.
CBS Sports Top 5 Corners
Greedy Williams / LSU
DeAndre Baker / University of Georgia
Byron Murphy / University of Washington
Trayvon Mullen / Clemson
Amani Oruwariye / Penn State
CER Top 5 Corners
Greedy Williams / LSU – Coverage Efficiency Rating: 1.398
Byron Murphy / University of Washington – CER: 1.253
DeAndre Baker / University of Georgia – CER:1.120
Amani Oruwariye / Penn State – CER: 1.108
Trayvon Mullen / Clemson – CER: 1.05
Film Study: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KY3jyelNpheEC9cIauXKeBWU6k1W5O-6IjJ5zcyy_vo/edit – gid=1796424838
Greedy Williams – Projected Pick: 9th overall (Detroit Lions)
Greedy is special. He excels when the ball is in the air and has excellent foot work to get himself in position to consistently make big plays. His CER is tops in this class and the rating reiterates the common perception that he will be the first cornerback off the board this year. His rating was 1.398 which indicates high scoring on this scale. Greedy turned in the most “green” positions in film study and is a can’t miss playmaker on the perimeter. He is a true cover corner and belongs on a team with an established front seven to hide his weakness in run support. If you are looking for a physical corner look elsewhere in this draft because this is not where Williams shines. The other weakness is the deep ball, most specifically located on the outside shoulder. Just about every corner struggles with this as a perfectly thrown deep ball to the outside is almost indefensible. If I am a talent evaluator I am not concerned about this. What I am concerned about is his tackling and ability to support the run in the second level. The corner out of LSU is a can’t miss prospect.
Deandre Baker – Projected Pick: 29th overall (Kansas City Chiefs)
This player is a unique prospect in the sense that he has the physical tools and playmaking ability to be a superstar in this league but does not get the same hype as Greedy Williams. He is a long 5 feet 11 who is comfortable in man or zone defense. Baker’s CER checked in at a solid 1.1204 which is an above average rating. This also drives home the reasons he does not get the same hype as Williams. Baker exceled in Kirby Smart’s advanced college defense and this will play well for his NFL trajectory. He possesses strong ball skills and most of his “red” efficiency ratings were on in cutting routes such as a slant, dig or post. At various points, he looks like a dominant man-to-man corner and at other points it looks like he is more comfortable playing off the line of scrimmage. This is a strong positive to carry with him into the draft as he will fit many different schemes but may be inconsistent playing bump and run coverage play after play. Ultimately, I think he is an outstanding fit for an established cover 3 defense but his versatile skillset will see him develop no matter the defense he plays in.
Byron Murphy – Projected Pick: 45th overall (2nd Round, Atlanta Falcons)
The CB out of Washington has the build to be a prototypical NFL corner at 6 feet, 180 lbs. He is an instinctive zone corner with the ability to thrive in versatile NFL schemes. In fact, if he is drafted by a team with a strong pass rush, he may win rookie of the year. The upside does not seem as high as the top two corners in this draft because he is not as strong in bump and run coverage. He has strong instincts and this should not hold back his future prospective playing man coverage when needed. The CER shows that he is actually a better cover corner overall than Baker with a rating of 1.2535. This rating is in line with consistent playmaking and at the end of the day Murphy will be a steal at the end of the 1stround or beginning of the 2ndround. He has good hands and often was in position for big-plays. Murphy is not necessarily a physically imposing corner but he is more willing to stick his nose in the box than Baker and Williams. He is not a lock to be a success at the professional level but I believe his football IQ is strong and he will develop into a strong zone corner with a knack for interceptions and touchdowns on the defensive side of the ball.
Trayvon Mullen – Projected Pick: 66th overall (3rdround, Pittsburgh Steelers)
In the defensive backfield Mullen does not possess the same cover skills and footwork than the previous three corners mentioned. He relies on his hands and physicality more so than his feet to remain in favorable position. The corner out of Clemson is fit for a man scheme but showed the ability to learn and remain effective in zone coverage. Based on his CER he graded out at 1.05 which signifies an average overall rating over 100 plays. Mullen is aggressive which at times made him susceptible to big plays. On tape, he showed flashes of dominance in bump and run coverage but often did not become a part of the play when playing zone. In the NFL, he will not be able to take plays off but I feel he has the mentality and coachability to not be a player known for that. The ball was often out quick due to the dominant Clemson defensive line and his aggressive mindset played right into this. The young cover man reaped the benefits often forcing QBs to have to look elsewhere or force a bad throw. Overall, Mullen is raw but does have a lot of upside based on his size, speed and true cover skills.
Amani Oruwariye – Projected Pick: 64th overall (2ndRound, New England Patriots)
This prospect is tricky. Some may roll the dice and keep his long frame on the outside at Cornerback. Others may look at the film and see a future NFL safety who can cover a variety of wide receiver types. At 6 feet 2 205 pounds, Amani Oruwariye possesses the size and quiet footwork that NFL evaluators covet. His coverage efficiency rating of 1.108 is well above average and he often was in favorable position despite playing off the ball. In Penn State’s defense, the cover man did not play nearly as much man-to-man coverage in comparison to zone schemes. Due to the system he played in, and his easily translatable zone coverage skills is best fit to move to the Free Safety role. This will allow the young player to learn the ins and outs early on. The small details at Safety in the NFL are so important and a year at corner may will not help him in the long run. Physicality as a safety or a corner is a question mark. If the senior out of Penn State ends up being moved to Safety the first thing that is needed is a complete acceptance and mentality change. He must be willing to stick his nose in the box and be physical.