Based on the eye test, Bryce Harper is a generational talent entering his prime and set to be a free agent at the age of 26. This situation creates a perfect storm for what will be a record breaking pay day for the exuberant star. Whichever team wins the Harper sweepstakes will struggle to justify the money and hope they did not overpay for one single player. Harper is represented by notorious agent Scott Boras. He is known for always pushing the envelope and will demand a King’s ransom to secure the stars talent. As an organization, you are not only getting a supreme baseball player but also can’t miss marketability. Boras will use this to bleed the front office dry. However, this should not mask the inconsistencies, injury history, and lackluster contact rate make Harper a bad long-term investment.
Notable Historic Hitter Contracts
-Albert Pujols: 10 years, 240 million
-Miguel Cabrera: 8 years, 248 million
-Giancarlo Stanton: 10 years, 300 million
-Ryan Howard: 5 years, 125 million
-Carl Crawford: 7 years, 142 million
What is Bryce Harper truly worth on the open market? There are rumors that he will ask for at least 40 million annually for 10 years. The goal is clearly to set a new standard and become the highest paid player in the history of baseball. He has the potential to be the face of baseball and is in his prime playing years which creates unprecedented leverage. This phenomenon alone will force any organization to overpay for Harper’s talent. The issue is not with the record-breaking annual salary he will receive but, the longevity of this contract. It cannot be back loaded like what the Marlins (and now Yankees) gave Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is set to make 32 million dollars in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Following this, in the final three years, he will make 27 million annually. In the final year of that contract Stanton will be 38. To compare, the former Nationals slugger would end a 10-year contract at age 36 with a career that started at age 19. The mileage on his 36-year old body will be slightly different than most players his age. These types of long contracts are never a good idea and never will be regardless of the player.
Due to his injury history, it would be a wise decision for Harper to focus on American League teams for preservation purposes. This is the ideal situation for Bryce Harper as the American League guarantees 81 home games sponsored by the Designated Hitter. If Harper makes a move to the AL then it provides him flexibility to play the outfield, preserve himself at the designated hitter spot, and also allow him time to learn first base. As an investor, it also is more logical if you plan to meet the astronomical price point. Even Harper’s most dedicated fans will concede that the 26-year old has not been known to avoid the disabled list. In fact, in his first seven years he has only managed to play 150 games twice (2015, 2018). He has missed 40+ games twice and is by no means the most durable player. This is no knock on his talents or abilities, as injuries and mishaps are often out of the players control. But it becomes more difficult to showcase just why you paid one player so much money when they are not on field. Harper, who has played high-level baseball since his teens, has suffered through injuries to the hip, knee, thumb, neck, and shoulder in his first seven years. His reckless nature and genuine passion for the game, which many view as a benefit, can also come back to haunt the youngster. Not only have minor injuries hindered his ability to stay on the field but he has also shown a tendency to fade as the season wears on. As stated before, it seems that the 6-foot-3, 220-pound outfielder would benefit from the perks of the DH. His injury history is not ideal for the long-term contract he will command.
Caution, a word that does not seem to be in Bryce Harper’s vocabulary on the baseball field, must be exercised in these negotiations. The conditions are set for a historic contract and Harper is hungry for the opportunity. There is no doubt that he will set an unprecedented standard for paying the top players in baseball. This is a big victory for baseball players all across the globe who will have a new aiming point for how valuable they can be. The smart move for an organization would be a shorter contract around 35-40 million annually. But, this is Bryce Harper’s world and we’re just living in it. If you are an organization in on the sweepstakes, there are two words: all in.
My suggestion: 6 years 240 million (40 million annually)