The Stolen Base is Back

In 2020, nine teams are over an 80 percent success rate on stolen base attempts. Only five teams were over 80 percent in 2019 and if you look at the numbers, they get more inefficient the further you go back. To put his into perspective, in 2017, no one stole bases and there were no teams above 80 percent in efficiency. Stolen Base Percentage is up around Major League Baseball. Teams are not necessarily stealing more but are stealing at a much higher clip. The old saying quality over quantity holds true when swiping a bag. It is all a numbers game and the computers have ensured teams can steal bases with better success. The next step in the tiny stolen base revolution is rooted in building a roster full of players to take this efficiency to the next level.

The numbers don’t lie. There are a few distinct variables that combine to give managers a good idea of when a player is safe to attempt a steal. These variables include pitcher delivery time, catcher pop time, max lead distance, average lead distance and foot speed. Once you take into account this mix of numbers you should know a favorable situation for a steal. This favorability can also take into account room for error in case a player gets a terrible jump off of a pitcher. The possibilities are endless, and I believe this October you will see average speed teams run like it’s the 1980s. Whether you are an old school fan who adores the stolen base or a new age analytical thinker, who sees the stolen base as an inning destroyer, both can agree on one thing. The stolen base can put a ton of pressure on the opposing team as well as create better scoring probabilities in an inning(think about stealing third with one-out).

Stolen Base% leaders through 9/18

  1. Mariners
  2. Padres
  3. Marlins
  4. Rangers
  5. Rays

The game is being taken over by analytics and it has allowed for teams to have a more clear idea of when they can swipe a base and when they cannot. This takes a large portion of risk out of building a team around speed. Front offices are always looking for competitive advantages against their peers and this idea looks ripe for the taking. The competitive advantage lies in taking the numbers and variables mentioned above and aligning them with players that fit. Over 80 percent stolen percentage is optimal but why not shoot for even higher? The run game becomes even less risky with a roster of athletic players. This where a team, like the Mariners mentioned above, could build, draft and develop their roster to do something out of the box. It is time to take the next step and look at players that create havoc through athleticism and efficient base stealing. In fact, small ball is a lost art in 2020, and the team that brings it back and executes on efficiency around small ball and speed could sneak away with a 2015 Royals-like World Series in the coming years. Almost every single team has adapted the three outcome approach of hard contact, a strikeout or a walk as suitable results for an at-bat. It times to change that in a way we never thought before. Numbers don’t lie